The Bizarre Scenario Where Brentford Could Benefit by Losing on Purpose

Within all of the potential European permutations towards the end of the season, Peripheral has worked out one scenario where purposely losing a game could bring the Bees millions of pounds.

TLDR:

• The Premier League has been awarded one of the Champions League's European Performance Spots (EPS), giving it 5 Champions League places for next season

  
  

• If Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish 5th, they will get the EL winning UCL spot and the 5th placed EPS UCL Qualification spot will drop to the 6th placed team.

• However, if they finish in the top 4 then the EL winning UCL spot doesn't apply, and there is no additional 6th placed UCL position.

  
  

• The scenario works in the circumstances that going into the final day, Brentford are comfortably 6th, and Liverpool are 5th behind Villa in 4th and Villa have won the Europa League

  
  

• In this case, as Brentford face Liverpool on the last day of the season, letting Liverpool win and take fourth spot off Villa would enable Brentford to gain a Champions League spot instead of a Europa League one for finishing 6th.

The 5th Champions League Spot is Mixing Things up

With five games to go of the Premier League season, the tightness of the competition and the number of English teams in the latter stages of European tournaments mean that next year's European spots are all up for grabs. Within all the permutations for the final league positions, there is one seemingly counterintuitive scenario that would make it in one team's interest to lose on purpose.

It has been recently reported that a team finishing 6th in the Premier League could qualify for the Champions League. The only scenario where this could happen would be if Aston Villa win the Europa League, and finish 5th in the Premier League.

This is because the 5th English Champions League place is a European Performance Spot (EPS). UEFA rules state that if a Europa League winning team also finish in a Champions League spot, the duplicated Champions League qualification does not stay in that league.

However, if a team wins the tournament and finishes in the EPS place, the Europa League winning prize takes precedent and the EPS spot drops to the next team in that league.

This means that the 6 Premier League teams who are within 3 points of 6th place Chelsea are rooting for Aston Villa to go all the way in the Europa League, who face a two-legged semi-final against Nottingham Forest in the next month.

This specifics of this situation could set up a bizarre set of circumstances for the final day of the season.

The Final Day Scenario

On the 24th May, Liverpool face Brentford. This match will take place 4 days after the Europa League final. And beyond being Mo Salah's last game for the club, it could be one to decide European Qualification.

The specific scenario will only occur if Brentford are comfortably in sixth and Aston Villa managed to triumph in Istanbul on Wednesday May 20th. Let's imagine that Liverpool and Aston Villa both either 4th and 5th, and within 3 points of each other.

In this situation, Brentford could qualify for the Champions League in 6th, but only if Liverpool finish in 4th and Aston Villa in 5th. That would mean it would be in Brentford's interest to let Liverpool win to enable them to finish above the Villans.

In a scenario like the above, where Brentford couldn’t be caught in 6th, they would only qualify for the Champions League instead of the Europa League if they let Liverpool win and hoped Aston Villa failed to beat Manchester City on the final day.

This would allow Liverpool to finish 4th and Aston Villa 5th, meaning the extra EPS UCL spot would drop to the Bees in 6th.

In other words, losing on purpose would be the best way to get Brentford Champions League qualification, with the millions of pounds that comes with it, not to mention the unbridled joy for their fans.

This is not to say that Brentford would ever decide to throw the game. And it could only happen in very specific circumstances. With the tightness of the table, European qualification could go any way. So for now, Brentford and the other teams chasing qualification must focus solely on their own final fixtures.

What would losing on purpose look like?

If Brentford wanted to take this approach, it's unlikely that they would be scoring own goals.

It could come in the form of resting key players and giving minutes to bench players to reduce their chances of winning. The fact that Liverpool would benefit from potentially finishing in a higher position would make it look more plausible.

However, it seems unlikely any team would do this, partially to avoid any risk of being penalised by the Premier League.

What do the Premier League rules say about losing on purpose?

As this is a fringe case, the Premier League rules don't specifically say whether something like this would be prohibited.

Rule L.21 states that a clubs 'must field a full strength team'. But it defines full strength as 'drawn exclusively from its Squad List as submitted to the Premier League'. So a team could still field a weakened side and get away with it.

Rule B.15 states a team 'shall behave towards each other Club, Official, Director and the League with the utmost good faith'. It is arguable that losing on purpose goes against this, but there is no clear ruling either way.

How would Brentford fans feel about throwing a game?

Peripheral spoke to Brentford fans to see whether they would want to see their team lose on purpose for a potential shot at a Champions League place. In general, supporters weren't keen to see the team play for a defeat.

For Andy, the question was as much about principle as football. "I, for one, can live with us not throwing the game at Anfield. I don't think Keith would need to throw the game anyway, as we always get schooled by Liverpool at Anfield. In Keith we trust. And in doing the right thing. That has become the Brentford way."

Ralph took a similar view, pointing to the club's culture under Matthew Benham as the deciding factor. "What I do expect is that the club makes every effort to get a result. Keith Andrews will have received a very clear brief from Matthew Benham on how he wants his teams to play. We play to win."

Simon, meanwhile, saw the whole debate as somewhat academic. "Being Brentford, if we were in that scenario you can bet your bottom dollar we would somehow end up winning that game. Sod's Law."